Keeneland Select
Race 9 at Woodbine | Saturday August 10 | Post Time 5:26 PM Eastern
Canadian Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward
Analysis and win contenders:
To start her 2024 campaign, Forever Dixie (1) won an allowance race on the grass at Gulfstream Park in April. Last year she won the Ontario Damsel Stakes on the main track at Woodbine. She shipped to Woodbine and finished third in the Grade 3 Belle Mahone Stakes after hopping at the start, moved to turf and finished fifth of 10 in the Grade 2 Nassau, then moved back to the main track on July 20 for the Grade 3 Trillium Stakes. In that race, Forever Dixie put in the best effort of her 15-race career because although she missed by a neck, she moved up from fifth in the very late stages, setting her up for even better with an extra eighth of a mile to work with. She ran well at the distance last August when coming up a half-length shy of winning a classified allowance race. Patrick Husbands has been aboard for all four of her career wins and from the ground saving rail this filly can post the upset for leading trainer Mark Casse, opening at ridiculously high odds of 15 to 1.
Full Count Felicia (3) also opens at 15 to 1, pretty ran high for a mare who has won 5 of 15 on turf for more than $300,000 including the Grade 3 Suwanee River Stakes in December in Florida. She won at this nine furlong trip on grass in the fall of her three year old campaign and even though she faded to fourth after leading from the start in the Nassau, because she had been away for five months she’s going to be a lot more fit today and run more like she did last September when winning the All Along Stakes at this distance on turf as well.
Forever After All (4) ships in from Kentucky off a fine second place effort, beaten a half-length, to Walkathon, who came back to win another stakes race last weekend. Before that, Forever After All finished third to a multiple graded stakes winner, Anisettte, in the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes, also at this distance. Trainer Walsh shipped Implicated from Kentucky to Woodbine to win the Nassau, the race where Millie Girl was third and Full Count Felicia fourth, and so the trainer may have another graded stakes winner at Woodbine in his care.
As to likely heavy favorite Moira (7), she is trained by Attard, same as Full Count Felicia, and she is certainly a consistent mare, but at the same time her record of 5-5-2 in 14 races and 1-3-2 in eight on turf makes it tough to bet her to win at low odds. She did win this race last year powerfully but hasn’t shown the same type of late kick and interest in winning since, though she will be making her second start following eight months off and can improve off her runner-up effort last month in the Grade 1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga.
Honorable mention goes to Millie Girl (2) and to Fashionably Fab (10). Millie Girl won back-to-back stakes on the main track at Woodbine last fall and has won twice on turf as well as makes her third off a layoff and was only a head behind the runner-up in the Nassau. Fashionably Fab is also trained by Attard and has shown up to run an “A” race in six straight tries, including being in a three-horse photo with Forever Dixie in the Trillium in her most recent start.
Win Bets: If both Forever Dixie (1) and Full Count Felicia (3) are anywhere near their starting 15 to 1 odds near post time, I plan to be them both as I would bet them at 4 to 1 or more. The same holds true for Forever After All (4), who I would consider at 4 to 1 or more, but I’ll play the two horses among these three at the highest odds.
Exactas:
Box Forever Dixie (1), Full Count Felicia (3), Forever After All (4) and Moira (7).
Also, Forever Dixie (1), Full Count Felicia (3), Forever After All (4) and Moira (7) over Box Forever Dixie (1), Full Count Felicia (3), Forever After All (4), Moira (7), Millie Girl (2) and Fashionably Fab (10).
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